When even a Stanford University professor like Jeffrey Pfeffer concludes that “the leadership industry has failed,” some critics are tempted to ditch the whole idea of leadership, as so much overblown nonsense. This would be a mistake. In a time of accelerating disruption, the art and science of enabling change is more important than ever. Three sets […]
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When you’re an individual contributor, your ability to use your technical expertise to deliver results is paramount. Once you’ve advanced into a leadership role, however, the toolkit that you relied on to deliver individual results rarely equips you to succeed through others. Beware of falling into the logical trap of “if I can do this […]
(Miss this week’s The Leadership Brief? This interview below was delivered to the inbox of Leadership Brief subscribers on Sunday morning, Nov. 8; to receive weekly emails of conversations with the world’s top CEOs and business decisionmakers, click here.) You don’t get to be a four-star general, responsible for defending North American airspace from attack, by […]
Seven of the world’s top 10 economies by 2030 will likely be current emerging markets.
The prediction for a shake-up of the world’s gross domestic product rankings comes in new long-term forecasts by Standard Chartered Plc, which includes a projection for China to become the largest economy by 2020, using purchasing power parity exchange rates and nominal GDP.
India will likely be larger than the U.S. in the same time period while Indonesia will break into the top 5 economies.
Top 10 countries by nominal GDP using PPP exchange rates by the year 2030
Source: Standard Chartered
Note: Estimates are in trillions of international dollars, using purchasing power parity measures
"Our long-term growth forecasts are underpinned by one key principle: countries’ share of world GDP should eventually converge with their share of the world’s population, driven by the convergence of per-capita GDP between advanced and emerging economies," Standard Chartered economists led by David Mann wrote in a note.
They project trend growth for India to accelerate to 7.8 percent by the 2020s while China’s will moderate to 5 percent by 2030 reflecting a natural slowdown given the economy’s size.
Asia’s share of global GDP, which rose to 28 percent last year from 20 percent in 2010, will likely reach 35 percent by 2030 -- matching that of the euro area and U.S. combined.
Here are some other findings from Standard Chartered’s economists:
- Waning reform momentum in emerging markets weighs on productivity growth
- The end of the quantitative easing era may mean more pressure on economies to reform and revive productivity trends
- The middle-class is at a tipping point, with a majority of the world’s population entering that income group by 2020
- Middle-class growth driven by urbanization and education should help counter the effects of the rapid population aging trend in many economies, including China
The traditional 9–5 workday is poorly structured for high productivity. Perhaps when most work was physical labor, but not in the knowledge working world we now live in. Although this may be obvious based on people’s mediocre performance, addiction to stimulants, lack of engagement, and the fact that most people hate their jobs — now there’s loads […]
U.S. stocks fell to the lowest level since May and Treasuries rallied amid renewed concern that the Trump administration will crack down on Chinese investment. Energy producers surged with crude, while the dollar jumped. The S&P 500 Index erased gains that reached 0.9 percent to finish at the worst level since May 29. Comments from Larry Kudlow […]
By day, Paul Angus is an engineer. But by night, he’s Cryptonomatron: a producer of hot takes on the latest initial coin offerings who has more than 8,000 subscribers on YouTube. The 43-year-old Scot’s online alter-ego is mostly a labor of love, yet it sometimes comes with an added perk: payment in digital tokens. That’s […]